Lee3

The US treasury secretary has warned some banks will still fail despite the $700bn government rescue package to shore up the financial system.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7660403.stm

so when's he's asking for the 700 billion without oversight he's like "yea, just give us the money, it's 700 billion it'll fix everything" and now after he's got the money, SPENT IT. Oh shit, it was not enough, and now the whole world will go down.

Here's how it goes, the world is one big market. The internet and phone system has made it so, we can reach anyone in the world within seconds. Common fact. However, the problem with that is, if one place crashes, so does the world. This is what's happening. Now, how do we fix this, well if you have a broken seam, you just pull everybody closer and close it. That's how the market works, if the US market fails, well the markets in UK, Japan, China, etc can come in and buy our stocks. Cheap = buy, high = sell. What the 700 billion does is, it throws in 700 billion out of the blue from thin air. It wasn't there before, it has to be created. PROBLEM. Money doesn't come from trees, Money comes from the VALUE, by making NEW money every time something comes up, makes it worth less. The more you print the less it's worth. Now it IS possible that the market value of the dollar can be less than a dollar. That's the problem going on right now. Because we've thrown in NEW MONEY into the system, there's a sudden shift of money flow, well the normal people and businesses go "oh shit i can't compete with 700 billion" so they pull out. Well the problem with that is, THEIR money is a continuous flow, it constantly replenishes itself, the 700 billion runs out. Especially since the market is supporting the whole world.

Basically, people are just holding out, they're not willing to throw in their money because their money are being depreciated, it's not worth as much as it's nominal value. So they wait til it drops  more, drop so low it compensates for that 700 billion, and then their money will be worth the same or more than what it is.

The American market is a beached whale right now, it's dead and no one wants to touch it because they don't know if it'll blow up. Literally, beached whales, the dead ones, when they start to decompose, gasses build up on the inside, and sometimes it blows up because the skin can't hold that much gas. Back to my point, the only thing standing between complete market destruction and failure of the COUNTRY is literally like 4-5 banks. Those guys are so big that they can buy out those toxic firms, and still hold still. However, if no money is flowing through, they will still go broke, and when they do, the American dollar will be worthless. It will be worth less than the material it's made of.

Now the interesting is, one of the main reasons it's getting worse is panic. People are pulling out their bank accounts, their life savings, their checking, everything. The problem with that is, the banks need that money to survive. See, when we put money in banks, the bank doesn't store it as like a vault, it keeps a portion of it in cash, and use the rest in stocks, funds, trusts, and such. And when they make money with YOUR money, they cut you a percentage called the "interest", to keep you "interest"ed. Now what happens when large crowds pull out their money, well the bank DON'T have enough cash to actually give everyone their money back, so they have to sell their stocks, funds, trusts, etc to get that cash. Which then makes them poor, as they can only make money off of your money since they have no money. Those of you who play stocks know, if you dont have sufficient money, then well, too bad. You don't own anything. You don't have anything. Same with banks, once a good percentage pulls out, they don't have enough money to run, and they fail. That's why the FDIC protects up to 100,000 dollars. It's so that people DON'T pull out of these banks from fear. The FDIC has never deferred any payments, it's good.

Now what's egging this fear on is that no one in the white house, congress, federal reserve, treasury, the candidates know jack shit how to fix this. No one knows how to even look at this crisis. I don't know about you, but if the ENTIRE government and the FUTURE government don't know how to even approach a problem, you have a BIG problem. People understand that, and no one can actually come out and say, "hey, don't be afraid, this is the problem, this is how to ease it". Now realistically, no one expects anyone to be able to fix this within 30-50 years. All they want to know is, are their money safe. And it is. People need reassurance, if it's up to me, I would get the chairman of the FDIC to come out, and we'll have a speech together. We'll explain to people what is going on, and how they are protected. Because 1) you're not lying 2) you're calming people down 3) you're not making the problem bigger 4) you're making the problem smaller 5) that's how you show initiative and leadership.

Lee3

原帖由 Triangel 於 2008-10-9 11:19 AM 發表


其實這一次的災難已經還好了。爲什麽這樣說？因爲我們有即時通訊，全世界的市場可以同步救市。那些大集團可以立刻抽離，普通市民也同樣可以即時抽離。早20年，每一個人都要打電話過去wall st, 如果這是在20年前，絕對是the s ...

yea i'm actually surprised my bank is still up and running, i'd thought it'll be bought out by Bank of America when the crisis hits.

Triangel

Dow falls about 300 points pulling it below 9,000 -- its lowest intraday level since July 1, 2003.

What the Fed has done is eventually going to help turn things around, but people don't believe it yet," said Gary Webb, CEO at Webb Financial Group.

Lee3

原帖由 Triangel 於 2008-10-10 03:41 AM 發表
Dow falls about 300 points pulling it below 9,000 -- its lowest intraday level since July 1, 2003.

What the Fed has done is eventually going to help turn things around, but people don't believe it ye ...

What has the Fed done that didn't screw up the economy farther? So that's how they fix things? Screw it up and then miraculously it will jump back up?

They can't even come out to the American public and explain to them WHAT they have done. In fact, the only people they ever talk to is banks and occasionally Congress. The problem with that is they control the money of EVERY American.

darrens

源自香港討論區的一個轉貼,也解釋了為何美國政府出左近萬億美元已令自已身陷險境
自行將discus.com.hk聯起即可
http://www.di sc us s.co m.hk/viewthread.php?tid=8271506

[轉] 簡單易明次按,CDS,危機來源過程
    你知道美國金融危機有多嚴重嗎?
　　對金融危機最普遍的官方解釋是次貸問題，然而次貸總共不過幾千億，而美國政府救市資金早已到了萬億以上，為什麼危機還是看不到頭？  
　　
　　
　　有文章指出危機的根源是金融機構採用「槓桿」交易；另一些專家指出金融危機的背後是62萬億的信用違約掉期（Credit Default Swap, CDS）。那麼，次貸，槓桿和CDS之間究竟是什麼關係？它們之間通過什麼樣的相互作用產生了今天的金融危機？  
　　
　　
　　為通俗易懂起見，我們使用了幾個假想的例子。有不恰當之處歡迎批評討論。  
　　
　　一、 槓桿：  
　　
　　
　　目前，許多投資銀行為了賺取暴利，採用20－30倍槓桿操作，假設一個銀行A自身資產為30億，30倍槓桿就是900億。也就是說，這個銀行A以30億資產為抵押去借900億的資金用於投資，假如投資盈利5％，那麼A就獲得45億的盈利，相對於A自身資產而言，這是150％的暴利。反過來，假如投資虧損5％，那麼銀行A賠光了自己的全部資產還欠15億。
　　
　　
　　二、 CDS合同：  
　　
　　
　　由於槓桿操作高風險，所以按照正常的規定，銀行不進行這樣的冒險操作。所以就有人想出一個辦法，把槓桿投資拿去做「保險」。這種保險就叫CDS。  
　　比如，銀行A為了逃避槓桿風險就找到了機構B。機構B可能是另一家銀行，也可能是保險公司，諸如此類。  
　　
　　
　　A對B說，你幫我的貸款做違約保險怎麼樣，我每年付你保險費5千萬，連續10年，總共5億，假如我的投資沒有違約，那麼這筆保險費你就白拿了，假如違約，你要為我賠償。  
　　
　　
　　A想，如果不違約，我可以賺45億，這裡面拿出5億用來做保險，我還能淨賺40億。如果有違約，反正有保險來賠。所以對A而言這是一筆只賺不賠的生意。  
　　
　　
　　B是一個精明的人，沒有立即答應A的邀請，而是回去做了一個統計分析，發現違約的情況不到1％。如果做一百家的生意，總計可以拿到500億的保險金，如果其中一家違約，賠償額最多不過50億，即使兩家違約，還能賺400億。  
　　A,B雙方都認為這筆買賣對自己有利，因此立即拍板成交，皆大歡喜。
　　
　　
　　三、CDS市場：  
　　
　　
　　B做了這筆保險生意之後，C在旁邊眼紅了。C就跑到B那邊說，你把這100個CDS賣給我怎麼樣，每個合同給你2億，總共200億。B想，我的400億要10年才能拿到，現在一轉手就有200億，而且沒有風險，何樂而不為，因此B和C馬上就成交了。
　　
　　
　　這樣一來，CDS就像股票一樣流到了金融市場之上，可以交易和買賣。實際上C拿到這批CDS之後，並不想等上10年再收取200億，而是把它掛牌出售，標價220億；D看到這個產品，算了一下，400億減去220億，還有180億可賺，這是「原始股」，不算貴，立即買了下來。一轉手，C賺了20億。從此以後，這些CDS就在市場上反覆的抄，現在CDS的市場總值已經抄到了62萬億美元。
　　
　　
　　四、次貸：  
　　
　　
　　上面A,B,C,D,E,F....都在賺大錢，那麼這些錢到底從那裡冒出來的呢？從根本上說，這些錢來自A以及同A相仿的投資人的盈利。而他們的盈利大半來自美國的次級貸款。人們說次貸危機是由於把錢借給了窮人。  
　　
　　
　　筆者對這個說法不以為然。筆者以為，次貸主要是給了普通的美國房產投資人。這些人的經濟實力本來只夠買自己的一套住房，但是看到房價快速上漲，動起了房產投機的主意。他們把自己的房子抵押出去，貸款買投資房。這類貸款利息要在8％－9％以上，憑他們自己的收入很難對付，不過他們可以繼續把房子抵押給銀行，借錢付利息，空手套白狼。
　　
　　
　　此時A很高興，他的投資在為他賺錢；B也很高興，市場違約率很低，保險生意可以繼續做；後面的C,D,E,F等等都跟著賺錢。  
　　
　　
　　五、次貸危機：  
　　
　　
　　房價漲到一定的程度就漲不上去了，後面沒人接盤。此時房產投機人急得像熱鍋上的螞蟻。房子賣不出去，高額利息要不停的付，終於到了走頭無路的一天，把房子甩給了銀行。此時違約就發生了。  
　　
　　
　　此時A感到一絲遺憾，大錢賺不著了，不過也虧不到那裡，反正有B做保險。B也不擔心，反正保險已經賣給了C。  
　　
　　
　　那麼現在這份CDS保險在那裡呢，在G手裡。G剛從F手裡花了300億買下了100個CDS，還沒來得及轉手，突然接到消息，這批CDS被降級，其中有20個違約，大大超出原先估計的1％到2％的違約率。每個違約要支付50億的保險金，總共支出達1000億。加上300億CDS收購費，G的虧損總計達1300億。雖然G是全美排行前10名的大機構，也經不起如此巨大的虧損。因此G瀕臨倒閉。
　　
　　六、金融危機：  
　　
　　如果G倒閉，那麼A花費5億美元買的保險就泡了湯，更糟糕的是，由於A採用了槓桿原理投資，根據前面的分析，A賠光全部資產也不夠還債。因此A立即面臨破產的危險。除了A之外，還有A2，A3,...,A20，統統要準備倒閉。因此G,A,A2,...,A20一起來到美國財政部長面前，一把鼻涕一把眼淚地遊說，G萬萬不能倒閉，它一倒閉大家都完了。財政部長心一軟，就把G給國有化了，此後A,...,A20的保險金總計1000億美元全部由美國納稅人支付。
　　
　　
　　七、美元危機：  
　　
　　
　　上面講到的100個CDS的市場價是300億。而CDS市場總值是62萬億，假設其中有10％的違約，那麼就有6萬億的違約CDS。這個數字是300億的200倍。如果說美國政府收購價值300億的CDS之後要賠出1000億。那麼對於剩下的那些違約CDS，美國政府就要賠出20萬億。如果不賠，就要看著A20,A21,A22等等一個接一個倒閉。無論採取什麼措施，美元大貶值已經不可避免。
　　
　　
　　以上計算所用的假設和數字同實際情況會有出入，但美國金融危機的嚴重性無法低估。



冇一個國家的央行會有6萬億美元資金做後盾..........所以任生似乎要快手快腳同美元脫鈎,否則死左都不知什麼事

Triangel

           

October 10, 2008 9:25 AM ET
Dow Jones         8,165.26       -413.93 / -4.82%

October 10, 2008 9:46 AM ET
Dow Jones         8,401.25       -177.94 / -2.07%

Bush appeals for confidence
"We can solve this crisis - and we will," said Bush.

"Here's what the American people need to know: The U.S. government is acting, and we will continue to act, to resolve this crisis and return stability to our markets," he said.

[ 本帖最後由 Triangel 於 2008-10-10 11:50 PM 編輯 ]

Triangel

Bush's speech Today~

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Here is the text of President Bush's speech concerning the financial crisis:
Good morning. Over the past few days, we have witnessed a startling drop in the stock market - much of it driven by uncertainty and fear. This has been a deeply unsettling period for the American people. Many of our citizens have serious concerns about their retirement accounts, their investments, and their economic well-being.
Here's what the American people need to know: that the United States government is acting; we will continue to act to resolve this crisis and restore stability to our markets. We are a prosperous nation with immense resources and a wide range of tools at our disposal. We're using these tools aggressively.

The fundamental problem is this: As the housing market has declined, banks holding assets related to home mortgages have suffered serious losses. As a result of these losses, many banks lack the capital or the confidence in each other to make new loans. In turn, our system of credit has frozen, which is keeping American businesses from financing their daily transactions - and creating uncertainty throughout our economy.
This uncertainty has led to anxiety among our people. And that is understandable - that anxiety can feed anxiety, and that can make it hard to see all that is being done to solve the problem. The federal government has a comprehensive strategy and the tools necessary to address the challenges in our economy. Fellow citizens: We can solve this crisis - and we will.

Here are the problems we face and the steps we are taking:

First, key markets are not functioning because there's a lack of liquidity - the grease necessary to keep the gears of our financial system turning. So the Federal Reserve has injected hundreds of billions of dollars into the system. The Fed has joined with central banks around the world to coordinate a cut in interest rates. This rate cut will allow banks to borrow money more affordably - and it should help free up additional credit necessary to create jobs, and finance college educations, and help American families meet their daily needs. The Fed has also announced a new program to provide support for the commercial paper market, which is freezing up. As the new program kicks in over the next week or so, it will help revive a key source of short-term financing for American businesses and financial institutions.

Second, some Americans are concerned about whether their money is safe. So the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the National Credit Union Administration have significantly expanded the amount of money insured in savings accounts, and checking accounts, and certificates of deposit. That means that if you have up to $250,000 in one of these insured accounts, every penny of that money is safe. The Treasury Department has also acted to restore confidence in a key element of America's financial system by offering government insurance for money market mutual funds.

Thirdly, we are concerned that some investors could take advantage of the crisis to illegally manipulate the stock market. So the Securities and Exchange Commission has launched rigorous enforcement actions to detect fraud and manipulation in the market. The SEC is focused on preventing abusive practices, such as putting out false information to drive down particular stocks for personal gain. Anyone caught engaging in illegal financial activities will be prosecuted.

Fourth, the decline in the housing market has left many Americans struggling to meet their mortgages and are concerned about losing their homes. My administration has launched two initiatives to help responsible borrowers keep their homes. One is called HOPE NOW, and it brings together homeowners and lenders and mortgage services and others to find ways to prevent foreclosure. The other initiative is aimed at making it easier for responsible homeowners to refinance into affordable mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration. So far, these programs have helped more than 2 million Americans stay in their home. And the point is this: If you are struggling to meet your mortgage, there are ways that you can get help.

With these actions to help to prevent foreclosures, we're addressing a key problem in the housing market: The supply of homes now exceeds demand. And as a result, home values have declined. Once supply and demand balance out, our housing market will be able to recover - and that will help our broader economy begin to grow.

Fifth, we've seen that problems in the financial system are not isolated to the United States. They're also affecting other nations around the globe. So we're working closely with partners around the world to ensure that our actions are coordinated and effective. Tomorrow, I'll meet with the finance ministers from our partners in the G7 and the heads of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Secretary [Henry] Paulson will also meet with finance ministers from the world's 20 leading economies. Through these efforts, the world is sending an unmistakable signal: We're in this together, and we'll come through this together.

And finally, American businesses and consumers are struggling to obtain credit, because banks do not have sufficient capital to make loans. So my administration worked with Congress to quickly pass a $700 billion financial rescue package. This new law authorizes the Treasury Department to use a variety of measures to help bank (sic) rebuild capital - including buying or insuring troubled assets and purchasing equity of financial institutions. The Department will implement measures that have maximum impact as quickly as possible. Seven hundred billion dollars is a significant amount of money. And as we act, we will do it in a way that is effective.
The plan we are executing is aggressive. It is the right plan. It will take time to have its full impact. It is flexible enough to adapt as the situation changes. And it is big enough to work.

The federal government will continue to take the actions necessary to restore stability to our financial markets and growth to our economy. We have an outstanding economic team carrying out this effort, led by Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, SEC Chairman Chris Cox, and FDIC Chair Sheila Bair. I thank them and their dedicated teams for their service during this important moment in our country's history.

This is an anxious time, but the American people can be confident in our economic future. We know what the problems are, we have the tools we need to fix them, and we're working swiftly to do so. Our economy is innovative, industrious and resilient because the American people who make up our economy are innovative, industrious and resilient. We all share a determination to solve this problem - and that is exactly what we're going to do. May God bless you.

閱後語： 其實， 當戰爭時期， 係未唔應該懷有異心，要一心服從 Commander of Chief 的命令去打贏呢場仗至再算呢？





[ 本帖最後由 Triangel 於 2008-10-11 01:09 AM 編輯 ]

d228216

DJ兩次試穿8000

infjlam

低處未見低

呢鑊唔知點收科

Triangel

原帖由 d228216 於 2008-10-11 02:16 AM 發表
DJ兩次試穿8000

8,000 / 600 = 兩星期工作天玩完~