笨小孩

Originally posted by d228216 at 2007-8-11 12:21 AM:

Dow 13,232.39  ↓38.29 (0.29%)
[...

榮歸大結局，秋官效應結束？


好似4點先收市喎，咁快咁開心，唔通你揸左好多期指或call輪？

不過，漫漫長夜…唔知捱唔捱到收市

red0011101

may be U.S property market just like HK(1998-2005)....慢慢陰乾....有負資產出現...破產大升....基金有部分 close up ....債券利率升......銀根收縮.....comp revenue 下降....工人就業差...影響全球消費市場.....股市下降....
因中國發展內部需求強烈.....故可 support 一下市場信心.....and 人民存款大量 ....影響不太大....只要過幾年信心回復...問題淡化.... 商業周期上升...經濟便 ok ga....
and 最大鑊應是大選後....共和黨因爭票會頂住問題不爆...多次出口術便知...
入市小心...若不賣手上 share ....請轉國產大企業股.......
小心...小心...

d228216

Originally posted by 笨小孩 at 2007-8-11 12:24 AM:



榮歸大結局，秋官效應結束？:cl...

高速反彈啦

本帖隱藏的內容需要積分高於 1000 才可瀏覽

qulapo

Originally posted by locklock at 2007-8-11 12:01 AM:

cash is king 睇到黎句野就生氣！:a...

sigh, please stay calm and on topic

there's a time for stocks, and a time for cash

all i'm suggesting is that now is a good time to consider holding cash or cash rich companies as credit problems escalate

subprime is not a global problem, but it is the trigger that leads to a global credit crunch as overleveraged funds sell their assets or borrow money to meet increased margin requirements

this puts downward pressure on asset prices and upward pressure on borrowing costs

this is likely going to last quite a while given the amount of leverage many big funds have been using

we had similar global credit crunches at the end of the filter-074 financial bubble in 1997-1998 and the tech bubble in 2000-2001

holding cash and cash rich companies during those periods turned out to be a good move

anyway just a word of caution from my perspective

what you do with your own money is entirely up to you

china is in a world of its own as its currency is not freely convertible

foreign investments and loans into china are highly regulated to begin with, so the global credit crunch is unlikely going to have much of an impact

locklock

Originally posted by qulapo at 2007-8-11 12:44 AM:
sigh, please stay calm and on t...

如果歐美央行唔出手，就會如你所願，但依家人為因素改變一切。
過去歷史係唔包括人為人素，你舉的例子也是如此。
正正因為過去前車可鑑，所以今次歐美央行二話不說就出手救市。
中國正正坐享其成，歐美扒街佢又賺，歐美賺錢佢又賺。
ＣＡＳＨ　ＩＳ　ＫＩＮＧ，李氏一族一定唔認同你。
當然，升市你買，跌市你賣，逆市而行，經驗不足，咁就愛莫能助了。
是個人運氣問題。其實只要忍一忍，一定有運行！

　　　　　　　　　　　人類出世也是一個離開也是一個

[ Last edited by locklock on 2007-8-11 at 12:55 AM ]

qulapo

Originally posted by locklock at 2007-8-11 12:54 AM:

如果歐美央行唔出手，就會如你所願...

the ecb, the fed, and other central banks around world always add liquidity into the markets when faced with a credit crunch

it is the only thing they can do to ease the panic, but doesn't change the fact that there's a global credit crunch

the last time they made such a concerted move was right after the sept 11 attacks in 2001

the move supported the markets for a while but did not prevent the markets from hitting a true bottom a full year later in late 2002

central banks can add as much liquidity as they want but the markets have ideas of their own

whether stocks go up or down i could care less, i have been trading for a living for years, be it in a bull or bear market

all i'm doing is sharing my experience and hoping for points

啜皇

現在只係淡友玩野，學董伯伯話:[[香港好，國家好，國家越好;香港更加好。]]到時淡友收工[[因為中國升市中]]，我地股友一定更加好。

locklock

Originally posted by qulapo at 2007-8-11 01:09 AM:
the ecb, the fed, and other cen...

你講咁多都係過去歷史！９１１過時港股都無２００００點啦！
咁點解港股現在有２００００點？港股已脫離你過去認知的因素。
當然炒即日仙就無乜野好講，但講大勢，港股一定睇升，唔會跌，
因為背後太多利好因素！想想李嘉誠條蛋散出黎叫人唔好買股票過日之後，
港股只少升多１０００幾２０００點，李嘉誠不斷係咁增持自己系內Ｄ股票！
次按問題只係借題發揮，個名都有得你叫啦，係次，即係唔多打緊！（講笑！）
歐美股市好少會有央行出手，就算９１１都唔會有。
證明今濟野唔係少野，但係既然政府都有意解決問題，你咪信佢一次囉，取非你係大淡友！

　　　　　　　　　　　人類出世也是一個離開也是一個

[ Last edited by locklock on 2007-8-11 at 02:14 AM ]

qulapo

Originally posted by locklock at 2007-8-11 02:12 AM:

你講咁多都係過去歷史！９１１過時...

believe what you like, but it's unnecessary to attack others' ideas or viewpoints by calling names and such

i agree stocks are good investments over the long run, but it doesn't hurt to be cautious when you can see that credit is drying up

whether you like it or not, history gives us a good frame of reference, and i'm simply stating facts when i say that central banks add liquidity whenever we face a credit crunch

this is only one of many times that central banks have added liquidity to the markets

straight from bloomberg

In a statement today, the ECB said it was providing emergency funds ``to assure orderly conditions in the euro money market.'' It allotted 100 percent of the 49 bids at a fixed rate of 4 percent.

It was the first operation of this type since the attacks of Sept. 11. A day after the attacks, the bank allocated 69.3 billion euros, followed on the Sept. 13 by a 40.5 billion euro award.

again, the problem i see is not directly related to subprime, subprime is simply the trigger that led to a wave of fund unwinding their overleveraged positions and causing the global credit crunch that we are seeing now

the global credit crunch is the real problem, as it was in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001

the financial and tech bubbles were also only triggers

central banks can intervene all they want, but the markets simply need time to sort out the credit imbalances

could be as short as a few months, as in july - oct 1998, or as long as a few years, as in sept 2000 to sept 2002

holding cash or stocks in cash rich companies outperformed the overall stock market during these periods with global liquidity problems

the point is, by the time central banks realize that credit problems are so big that they have to step in and add liquidity globally, their actions do little to ease the panic

it is usually a good signal to take money out of the markets, rebalance portfolios, and look for a better time to put money into the markets again

read what you like, take away what you will from this, i only want to get the facts straight and i have nothing to gain other than a few extra points

andyandyandy

大家好似仲看好後市,但美國次案還未結束,全球股市仍處於下調危機,
基金公司經理還未出手,但佢哋都"若"視準備大量出貨,俾你一個操手不及.
不論有貨冇貨都好,還是要有心理準備小心謹慎投資好d.

美國道瓊斯股市今天曾下跌至超過200點,尾市跌勢收窄
道瓊斯 13,239.54 -31.14 -0.23%
納斯達克 2,544.89 -11.60 -0.45%